AGP Executive Report

Digital Connectivity: Nigeria’s new NUCAP programme will install 3,700 telecom towers to bring service to nearly 20 million people, widening access to digital payments, education and markets. Markets & Finance: The NGX fell 0.07% on Friday, wiping N109bn from market value. Onafriq is also winding down its Baxi agent-banking business, citing naira depreciation, inflation and tighter margins; United Nigeria Airlines plans to raise N20bn through commercial paper. Cost of Living: September inflation eased to 14.63% for a fourth straight month, but food remains unaffordable for many: Orodata found 65.8% of households could not afford nutritious food. Investment & FX: The World Bank says it mobilised $5.79bn in private capital for Nigeria as the country targets 850,000 jobs. Meanwhile, foreign-exchange demand hit $18.34bn in the second quarter, with services accounting for 72%. Ports: The government has launched a new regulator to promote competition, investment and transparency across the port sector.

Prices: Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, with food inflation at 19.59%. But the slower rise in prices has yet to ease the cost-of-living squeeze. Corporate Finance: United Nigeria Airlines plans a N20bn first tranche of a N100bn commercial-paper programme to support expansion. The airline reported N95.6bn in revenue in the first half of 2026. Trade: Nigerian and Indonesian firms signed business agreements worth $10m at Trade Expo Indonesia, aiming to deepen commercial ties. Power Costs: Businesses are turning to hybrid solar to reduce diesel bills; one hospitality project is expected to save more than N102m a year. The government also ruled out an electricity tariff hike as it launched a 17.7MW mini-grid project in Oyo. Monetary Policy: The IMF backed the CBN’s policy adjustment as inflation declines, while stressing that monetary policy remains tight.

Inflation: Nigeria’s headline rate eased for a fourth straight month, falling to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, though households still face high living costs. Markets: The NGX edged up 0.01% on Thursday, adding N22bn to market value, which closed at N160.8tn. Monetary Policy: CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso says Nigeria will apply lessons from remittance reforms to attract foreign exchange from more sectors and reduce reliance on oil. He also backed transparent, independent rate-setting. Investment: Nigeria is pitching 65 projects worth $78.5bn to investors, with energy and transport accounting for most of the proposed funding. Energy: Shell agreed to sell its domestic gas distribution business to Vaaris Energy. Fuel Policy: The IMF warned against restoring blanket petrol subsidies, urging targeted relief instead. Labour: The NLC rejected the government’s response to its ultimatum, raising the prospect of a nationwide strike over wages and economic relief.

Global Finance: Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele led G-24 calls for cheaper development loans, debt-restructuring reforms and stronger representation for developing economies. Markets: The naira closed at N1,332.59/$1 officially on Wednesday, while the NGX gained N104bn. CBN dollar sales fell 69% in the first half as private inflows grew, though second-quarter FX demand hit a 15-year high. Fuel Costs: The IMF warned against restoring blanket petrol subsidies, urging targeted help for vulnerable households instead. Investment: Nigeria is pitching 65 projects worth $78.5bn to investors, while Lagos and the AfDB launched support for 610 women-led businesses. Exports: LCCI warned that EU deforestation rules could put more than half of Nigeria’s cocoa exports at risk unless farms are mapped and traceability systems are ready by December. Energy: Shell agreed to sell its domestic gas distribution business to Vaaris Energy, ending more than 25 years in the business.

Investment Climate: Nigeria is promoting 65 projects worth $78.5bn to investors, even as a US report flags corruption, insecurity, power shortages and regulatory uncertainty as obstacles to investment. Foreign Reserves: CBN data put reserves at $58.81bn on October 12, near an 18-year high. Economic Relief: The IMF raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.2% but warned poverty remains high, urging targeted support instead of restoring broad petrol subsidies. Energy: Shell agreed to sell its domestic gas distribution business, which serves more than 130 companies, to local firm Vaaris Energy. Digital Infrastructure: A €14m EU-backed grant will fund preparations for a 90,000km national fibre-optic network. Markets: The NGX gained 0.06% on Wednesday, while Nigeria slipped to eighth in Africa’s financial-market ranking. Dangote IPO: Small investors applying for ₦50,000 or less will receive priority in the refinery’s public offering.

Currency: The naira weakened to N1,332.97 per dollar at the official market on Tuesday; parallel-market quotes on Wednesday were around N1,375 to buy and N1,390 to sell. Reserves reached $58.81bn on October 12, their highest level in 18 years. Cost of Living: The IMF raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.2% but urged targeted cash transfers for households facing high food and energy costs, warning against restoring broad petrol subsidies. Refining: Dangote Refinery reported $22.5bn revenue and $4.7bn net profit for the nine months to September, reversing a year-earlier loss. Its $1.6bn IPO subscription deadline has been extended to October 27. Energy: Shell agreed to sell its Nigerian domestic gas distribution business to Vaaris Energy, ending more than 25 years in the business. Trade: Cocoa industry leaders warn that EU traceability and deforestation rules could exclude up to 40% of African smallholders, putting Nigerian export earnings and farmer livelihoods at risk. Investment: Nigeria’s private capital inflows have climbed to nearly $6bn, while the World Bank plans to mobilise $5.79bn in private financing for the country.

Growth and Household Pressure: The IMF raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.1%, but warned that rising food and energy prices could deepen poverty and food insecurity, urging targeted support for vulnerable households. Oil and Gas: NNPC reported ₦7.2 trillion in profit and ₦5.8 trillion in dividends for 2025, while Shell agreed to sell its domestic gas distribution business to Nigerian firm Vaaris Energy. Investment: The World Bank plans to mobilise $5.79 billion in private financing for Nigeria in 2026, with projections of 850,000 jobs. Dangote Refinery extended its ₦2.15 trillion public offer to October 27 to give more African investors time to participate. Food and Exports: Nigeria’s annual wheat import bill now exceeds $3 billion, highlighting the challenge of building local supply. Separately, the Export Promotion Council warned that failure to meet EU deforestation rules could put more than $1 billion in yearly export earnings at risk. Markets: NGX equities shed ₦144.5 billion on Tuesday as banking and insurance stocks fell.

Energy: NNPC reported ₦7.2tn profit after tax for 2025, up 33%, and declared a ₦5.8tn dividend on revenue of ₦34.5tn. Growth and poverty: The IMF raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.2% but said living costs remain high and urged targeted support for vulnerable households. Debt: Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele warned developing countries pay about $500bn more to refinance debt than developed nations, calling high borrowing costs a barrier to inclusive growth. Markets: The naira weakened slightly to ₦1,332.09 per dollar at the official market on Monday, while NGX market capitalisation fell to ₦160.85tn. Investment: Dangote Refinery extended its ₦1.6bn IPO offer to October 27 to give more African investors time to participate; subscriptions have reportedly exceeded the target fourfold. Jobs and capital: The World Bank is targeting $5.79bn in private financing for Nigeria, projecting 850,000 jobs across sectors including agriculture, telecoms and small businesses.

Fuel Costs: Information Minister Mohammed Idris says NNPC’s 30-day petrol discount is funded by forgoing part of its profit, not a return to subsidy. Critics question its reach as prices remain high. Growth and Debt: The World Bank puts Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.3%, while reports say debt interest payments exceed revenue by 124%. Reserves rose to $55.07bn, but converting stronger indicators into relief and jobs remains a challenge. Investment: The World Bank is targeting up to $5.79bn in private financing for Nigeria and projects 850,000 jobs. Dangote Refinery extended its IPO deadline to October 27 to attract more investors, and is targeting capacity of 1.4 million barrels a day by 2029. Markets and Energy: Nigerian stocks shed N407bn on Monday. The government also unveiled a new security framework to curb oil theft and pipeline vandalism, which have weighed on production and revenue.

Markets: The CBN raised about ₦4.27tn through treasury-bill and OMO auctions, as investor demand exceeded the amounts offered. Jobs and Investment: The World Bank says it is mobilising up to $5.79bn in private financing for Nigeria, with projects expected to create 850,000 jobs; its latest report puts first-half growth at 4.2%. Capital Market: OPay shareholders approved a planned NGX secondary listing after its proposed New York IPO, which could widen local ownership of the fintech. Credit Outlook: Fitch revised Nigeria’s outlook to Positive and affirmed its B rating, while the Finance Ministry said the goal is to move towards investment-grade status. Investor Warning: The SEC cautioned Nigerians against WayvePay, an unregistered platform soliciting funds linked to the Dangote refinery IPO. Fuel Costs: NNPC says motorists can access its ₦66-per-litre discount only through its app, drawing criticism over who can use the temporary relief.

Growth and Reforms: The World Bank says Nigeria grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026 and poverty stabilised for the first time since 2019. It projects average growth of at least 4.4% through 2028, though job creation and effective public spending remain key challenges. Investor Confidence: Fitch revised Nigeria’s outlook to positive while affirming its ‘B’ rating, citing reform progress and stronger reserves. Fuel Prices: The government’s 30-day NNPC petrol discount faces questions over reach and lasting impact: MRS raised its pump price to N1,409 per litre, above the proposed N1,350 NNPC rate. Capital Markets: Fintech OPay has filed for a US IPO and plans a secondary listing on the Nigerian Exchange, subject to regulatory approval. Separately, Dangote Foundation plans to match qualifying refinery share purchases for up to five million students and two million vulnerable women. Industry: Nigeria is targeting $7.1 billion in investment over 10 years to boost sugar production and cut import dependence.

Credit Outlook: Fitch moved Nigeria’s outlook to positive and affirmed its ‘B’ rating, citing reforms and reserves of $54.9bn, but flagged inflation and weak public revenue. Fuel Costs: The temporary ₦66-per-litre discount at NNPC stations requires payment through its app, potentially excluding some motorists; meanwhile, UNCTAD says Nigerian diesel prices recorded the world’s steepest rise, at 82.7%. Capital Markets: Foreign investors accounted for just 4.89% of NGX trades in August and remained net sellers for an eighth consecutive month. SEC also warned against unregistered WayvePay and an unauthorised platform offering Dangote Refinery IPO shares. Industry: The government aims to lift locally assembled vehicles’ share of demand from under 8% to 70%, using procurement to support jobs and local production. Finance: JPMorgan is targeting a 2026 launch for a Nigerian merchant bank, subject to regulatory approval, while SEC urges universities to seek capital-market funding instead of relying on government allocations.

Investment Watch: SEC warned Nigerians against using unregistered WayvePay to access Dangote Refinery’s planned IPO, urging investors to verify official subscription channels. Credit Outlook: Fitch revised Nigeria’s outlook to positive and affirmed its ‘B’ rating, citing reforms, more flexible exchange rates and stronger reserves, while warning that weak governance, inflation and low government revenue remain constraints. Fuel Costs: UNCTAD says Nigeria recorded the world’s biggest diesel price increase from February to August, at 82.7%. A separate 30-day petrol discount at NNPC stations has drawn questions over who bears the cost, how widely consumers can access it and whether it offers lasting relief. Banking: JPMorgan is targeting a 2026 launch for a Nigerian merchant bank, subject to regulatory approval. Markets: Nigerian stocks rebounded after seven sessions of losses, adding about ₦209bn in market value.

Fuel Prices: NNPC Retail will waive its petrol margin for 30 days, with Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele insisting the discount uses no public funds and is not a subsidy. PETROAN says NNPC’s limited network could restrict access and wants at least 30% of discounted supply distributed through its outlets. FX Buffers: CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso says net external reserves reached a record $46bn, while gross reserves stood at $55.07bn on October 8, supporting FX stability and investor confidence. Business Finance: The Bank of Industry’s new MyBOI portal lets businesses apply online for conventional and non-interest loans and track applications. Power Sector: NBET has begun settling N729bn in legacy debts to generation companies and gas suppliers, a move intended to improve liquidity and support electricity supply. Banking: Zenith Bank reported H1 pre-tax profit of N637.6bn, up 1.9% year on year, and proposed a 20% higher interim dividend of N1.50 per share. Economic Outlook: The World Bank forecasts Nigeria’s economy will grow 4.3% in 2026, while warning that higher fuel costs could slow poverty reduction.

Currency & Markets: The naira strengthened to N1,331.19/$ at the official market on Friday, while the parallel rate held at N1,385. The NGX also rebounded 0.13% after seven losing sessions. Fuel Costs: The government says NNPC’s 30-day petrol discount comes from giving up its retail margin, not public subsidy. But access is limited to NNPC stations, and the NLC has given the government two weeks to cut petrol prices and reopen minimum-wage talks. Investment: JPMorgan plans to open a Nigerian merchant bank before year-end, subject to approval, as it expands its local presence. Energy: Crude production rose to 1.821 million barrels per day in September; NBET has begun settling N729 billion in debts to power generators and gas suppliers. Business Outlook: The World Bank forecasts 4.3% economic growth in 2026, while warning that poverty and job creation remain pressing challenges. Mobility firm Moove is exiting Nigeria and transferring N35 billion worth of vehicles to customers.

Markets: The naira weakened to N1,332.10/$1 at the official market on Thursday but strengthened to N1,360/$1 on the parallel market. Nigerian stocks fell 0.82%, wiping N1.33 trillion from market value. Fuel Costs: President Bola Tinubu backed a 30-day NNPC Retail petrol discount, with public transport operators prioritised. A proposed N1,350-per-litre ceiling on supply costs is still under negotiation; it is not a pump-price cap. Reserves and Growth: CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said net foreign reserves reached $46 billion, while the World Bank forecasts Nigeria’s economy will grow 4.3% in 2026. Manufacturing: A new industry report estimates Nigeria has more than N40 trillion in untapped manufacturing opportunities, with imports meeting 64% of demand for manufactured goods in 2025. Investment: Power Minister Joseph Tegbe identified generation upgrades, distribution infrastructure, dedicated business power and decentralised energy as areas for private investment.