AGP Executive Report

Markets: The NGX opened the week higher, adding ₦2.64tn in market value as the All-Share Index climbed 1.65% to 251,290.54 points, though more stocks fell than rose. Gas Investment: NMDPRA revised pipeline transport rules to give investors clearer access to Nigeria’s gas network, which may need up to $50bn in investment by 2030. Domestic Supply: Cooking-gas output rose 50% in September, with local sources meeting about 96% of supply as imports plunged. Growth and Industry: At the Nigerian Economic Summit, BUA chairman Abdul Samad Rabiu urged Nigeria to build 100 more major industrial companies to create jobs and boost production. The government ruled out restoring fuel subsidies and said reforms must deliver jobs and broader prosperity. Business Finance: Nigeria’s Klump has shut down after five years, citing difficulty securing lending capital and limits on credit provision. The NSIA also launched a $300m fund to expand renewable-energy access.

Markets: The naira traded around ₦1,331 to the dollar officially on Monday, against ₦1,370–₦1,385 on the parallel market. Nigerian shares extended losses, with 55 stocks falling and market capitalisation down ₦210bn over the week. Capital Raising: Investors are rushing for shares in Dangote Refinery’s IPO, which closes on October 27. OPay is also seeking up to $366m in a New York listing that could value the payments firm at $4.4bn; Standard Bank’s potential investment of up to $200m is conditional. Banking: FirstHoldCo reported ₦911bn in profit before tax for the first nine months of 2026, while the CBN granted JPMorgan preliminary approval to establish a merchant bank in Nigeria. Business Finance: Credit to manufacturers fell 26.8% to ₦5.19tn, even as the average maximum lending rate rose to 32.62%. The Tax Ombud plans free complaint-resolution services for rural businesses and market traders.

Currency & Markets: The naira lost ₦27.12 against the dollar in two days, closing at ₦1,361.84 at the official market on Friday. Nigerian investors drove ₦15.06 trillion in NGX trades as foreign participation fell to 10.26%. Banking: The CBN approved JPMorgan’s proposed merchant bank, paving the way for the US lender to establish a Nigerian operation. Retail: Shoprite plans to revive its local business with neighbourhood stores, shifting from mall-based expansion. Trade & Investment: Nigeria and South Korea are seeking stronger investment ties, including in manufacturing and technology. Nigeria’s net foreign-exchange flows also rose to $22.5 billion in Q2, the highest since late 2019. Agriculture: Poultry farmers want a government probe into alleged hatchery dominance, warning high chick and production costs could squeeze small farmers and push up Christmas chicken prices. Startups: NSIA and partners awarded $277,000 to seven Nigerian startups at a Demo Day.

Markets and FX: Nigeria’s net foreign-exchange flows rose to $22.5bn in Q2, the strongest since late 2019, but the naira weakened to about ₦1,361 per dollar at the official market. NGX trading by local and foreign investors reached ₦15.06tn in the first nine months, with domestic investors accounting for nearly 90%. Banking: The CBN granted JPMorgan approval-in-principle to establish a merchant bank in Nigeria, deepening the US lender’s local presence. Retail: Shoprite plans to revive its Nigerian business with smaller neighbourhood stores after reopening three outlets, citing high rents and financing costs among past challenges. Energy: Petrol prices fell at several depots last week while diesel rose, squeezing businesses as crude topped $116 a barrel. TCN also commissioned six substations, adding 640MW of transmission capacity. Startups: Seven Nigerian firms shared $277,000 in NSIA awards, as the finance minister urged startups to scale and create jobs.

Economic Outlook: President Bola Tinubu launched his 2027 re-election campaign in Kaduna, defending reforms as households continue to face high living costs. Opposition leaders challenged his claims of recovery, keeping the economy at the centre of the election debate. Banking: The CBN granted JPMorgan approval-in-principle to establish a merchant bank in Nigeria, subject to further regulatory steps before it can begin operating. Markets: Nigerian equities rebounded, adding ₦1.47 trillion as Dangote Cement and bank stocks led gains, while the naira weakened at the official market. Retail: Shoprite plans to reopen with smaller neighbourhood stores after three outlets resumed trading, shifting away from its mall-focused model. Business Results: Unilever Nigeria reported ₦184 billion in nine-month revenue and ₦26.4 billion in net profit, and declared an interim dividend.

Banking: The CBN has given JPMorgan approval-in-principle to establish a merchant bank in Nigeria, pending a final licence and other requirements. The move adds to growing foreign interest in the country’s financial sector. Power: Four substations in Kano have added 544MW of transmission capacity, with the projects expected to improve supply to businesses and communities. Trade: The government has launched trade intelligence tools to help exporters identify markets and attract investment, as it pursues a $1tn economy by 2030. Markets: Nigerian equities rebounded, pushing market capitalisation above N160tn. Cost of Living: The National Economic Council endorsed a 90-day plan to ease pressure on households, with food affordability among its priorities. Small Businesses: Delta plans N4bn in grants for 15,000 residents, while Kwara has awarded N90m to 12 young entrepreneurs.

Currency and Markets: The naira weakened to N1,367 per dollar on the parallel market and N1,370 at the official window. The NGX rebounded, adding N1.47 trillion in market value as Dangote Cement and First HoldCo each gained 10%. Tax Pressure: The Tax Ombud warned that arbitrary assessments and multiple levies could undermine new tax reforms. Transport union NURTW says highway collections can cost a driver up to N300,000 on a Calabar–Kano trip. Cost of Living: The National Economic Council approved a 90-day plan to ease hardship and lower food and transport costs. Business Finance: Japan committed $10.4 million to Nigeria’s startup hub, while a proposed $50 million seed fund is also in the works. The Development Bank of Nigeria and AfDB signed a $61 million financing deal targeting women-led businesses. Corporate Results: Unilever Nigeria’s nine-month net profit rose 20% to N26.4 billion, and the board approved an N11.5 billion interim dividend. Banking: The CBN gave JPMorgan approval in principle to establish a merchant bank in Nigeria.

Cost of Living: NEC approved a 90-day plan focused on food affordability, tax harmonisation, major projects, investment bottlenecks and targeted household support. A dashboard will track delivery and subsidy savings. Fuel Supply: Petrol receipts fell 23% in September to 38.7 million litres a day, below demand of 44.4 million, even as Dangote refinery output rose. Domestic supply and imports both declined. Rates & Liquidity: The CBN’s 350-basis-point rate cut to 23% has yet to pull yields down sharply: some securities still offer more than 17%, while overnight deposits at the CBN earn 20%. Broad money rose N7.51tn to N146.6tn in September. Business Finance: BOI is targeting N1.35tn in loans for 2027 and seeking funding for 10-year manufacturer loans. Trade & Investment: The government launched tools to help exporters assess markets and tariffs, while the CBN is working with Chinese businesses to ease payments and deepen investment ties. Corporate Results: Guinness Nigeria’s nine-month profit climbed 53% to N40.69bn; it declared a N7 interim dividend. Foreign Exchange: The naira edged up to N1,334.40/$ at the official market but weakened to N1,360/$ on the parallel market.

Cost-of-Living Plan: The National Economic Council backed a 90-day plan focused on food affordability, tax harmonisation, priority projects, investment bottlenecks and targeted household support. It also approved a dashboard to track projects and how subsidy-removal proceeds are spent. Nigeria–China Finance: The CBN held talks in Beijing with business leaders on easing cross-border payments, strengthening banking links and expanding investment flows. Markets and Money: The NGX shed ₦103bn on Thursday as losses continued. Cash outside banks reached ₦4.92tn in September, while money supply rose to about ₦146.6tn, according to CBN figures. Business Growth: Guinness Nigeria reported a 53% rise in nine-month profit to ₦40.69bn and declared an interim ₦7 dividend per share. Nigeria also led Africa’s startup funding markets with $635m raised, while the Development Bank of Nigeria says it has disbursed ₦1.4tn in MSME loans. Consumer Spending: Food delivery accounts for just 1% of spending on prepared meals in Nigeria, as high costs limit demand for convenience services.

Currency Markets: The naira weakened by 1.07 to N1,334.72 per dollar at the official market on Wednesday, while FX turnover more than doubled to $127.6 million. Growth Agenda: The government is finalising its 2026–2030 development plan, targeting a $1 trillion economy with priorities including investment, infrastructure and productivity. MSME Finance: The Development Bank of Nigeria says it has disbursed N1.4 trillion to small businesses, supporting about 1.6 million jobs; its new strategy aims to reach more than two million MSMEs. Business Performance: Guinness Nigeria’s nine-month profit rose 53% to N40.69 billion, while cocoa exports to the US climbed to $142 million in 2025 from $21.7 million the previous year. Business Costs: Private-sector credit fell by N537.6 billion in September, and industry stakeholders say infrastructure gaps and weak funding are slowing CNG adoption as high energy costs squeeze competitiveness.

SME Finance: BAS Group’s CEO says unsuitable loan terms, heavy collateral demands and slow approvals are deepening the funding gap, even when capital is available. Energy Investment: Aliko Dangote bought a 25% stake in Kenya Pipeline Company for about $327 million, extending his energy interests across Africa. Banking: JPMorgan has deposited N50 billion with the Central Bank as it pursues a Nigerian banking licence by 2027. Startups: Nigerian startups raised $635 million, restoring the country’s lead in African funding, according to reports. Gas Growth: The government says four gas projects have reached final investment decisions in under two years, with daily output rising to about 8 billion cubic feet. Public Finance: The World Bank’s proposed $500 million loan is tied to reforms and audits, while the NGX shed N516 billion on Wednesday as shares fell.

Currency: The naira edged up 11 kobo to N1,333.65 per dollar at the official market on Tuesday, while foreign-exchange turnover rose 48%. Banking: JPMorgan has deposited N50bn with the CBN as it seeks a merchant-banking licence, potentially expanding corporate finance and capital-markets services in Nigeria. Markets: NGX equities rebounded, adding N411bn in value as buying interest returned. Small Businesses: ASBON says rising costs, debt and multiple levies are forcing firms to close, threatening jobs and household incomes. Startups: Nigerian ventures raised $635m in the first nine months of 2026, reclaiming Africa’s top spot for startup funding. Growth Target: Former NEPZA chief Adesugba warned that Nigeria’s $1tn economy ambition could slip from 2030 to 2040 without faster growth and stronger execution.

Capital Markets: Nigeria launched a 10-year market plan to mobilise investment for its $1 trillion economy goal, targeting a tenfold rise in collective investment assets and more diaspora investment. Banking: JPMorgan deposited N50 billion with the CBN as it moves toward a merchant banking licence, with launch targeted by year-end or early 2027. Markets & Investment: The NGX recovered N410.86 billion on Tuesday after Monday’s steep drop. Nigeria also reported $23 billion in capital importation, while reserves topped $50 billion. Public Finances: Customs called for a review of N1.68 trillion in import duty concessions, saying poorly targeted waivers could weaken government revenue. Agriculture & Industry: The government is developing a climate-finance framework for smallholder farmers, while Edo is seeking investment to expand rubber processing and jobs. Diaspora Funding: Monthly remittances are nearing $1 billion, according to NiDCOM, which also cited overseas investment in sectors including agriculture, healthcare and technology.

Foreign Exchange: The naira slipped to N1,333.76/$ at the official market on Monday as interbank turnover plunged 84% to $41m. Deutsche Bank sees room for appreciation, but cash-market quotes remained weaker at around N1,358/$1. Fuel Policy: President Bola Tinubu again ruled out restoring petrol subsidies, while Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele warned a reversal could trigger capital flight and push the naira as low as N4,000/$1. He said fuel taxes could come later, once incomes improve and the economy stabilises. Capital Markets: The government plans incentives to draw firms including NNPC and NLNG to the NGX, as officials target a N750tn market by 2036. Small Businesses: Moniepoint says it disbursed more than N1tn in credit to small businesses in 2025, highlighting the scale of demand for SME finance. Energy and Industry: The UN recognised Nigeria’s rural power programmes for connecting more than five million people and supporting 5,000 green jobs. Mineral experts also urged the country to process more resources locally instead of exporting them raw.

Fiscal Policy: Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says fuel taxes will wait until the economy stabilises and incomes improve, while warning that restoring petrol subsidies could severely weaken the naira. Capital Markets: Vice-President Kashim Shettima unveiled a 10-year plan to grow market capitalisation to ₦750tn by 2036; Oyedele says the government also wants a $1tn market and plans to list NNPC and NLNG. Business Finance: Bank credit to traders rose 62% in the first half of 2026, but manufacturing lending fell 27%, as manufacturers struggle with borrowing costs near 30%. Markets and Currency: The NGX shed ₦1.47tn on Monday, while the naira slipped to ₦1,333.72 per dollar at the official market. Power and Investment: Grid disturbances briefly cut generation from 3,840MW to about 477MW before operators restored service. Akwa Ibom says its proposed Ibom Deep Seaport could create more than 300,000 jobs.

Capital Markets: Dangote Refinery’s IPO has attracted investors from 51 African countries and more than 90 countries worldwide. The offer closes October 27; the company reported $22.5bn in revenue and $4.7bn in profit for the nine months to September. Public Finances: The Finance Ministry disputes the World Bank’s estimate that debt interest consumed 124% of federal revenue in the first half of 2026, saying the calculation uses incomplete revenue figures and includes state debt payments. Energy Costs: Brent crude neared $110 a barrel, raising the risk of higher fuel, transport and production costs even as Nigeria’s inflation eased to 14.63% in September. Business Financing: BOI has joined a $4.1bn and ₦435bn Renaissance vendor-financing scheme to help Nigerian oil and gas contractors fund projects and equipment. Growth and Jobs: The government is pushing to expand CNG use, targeting one million gas-powered vehicles, while a €14m EU grant will support preparations for a 90,000km fibre network.