AGP Executive Report

FX & Markets: The naira inched up at the official market to about ₦1,362/$ as FX turnover fell, while NGX investors gained ₦234bn on Friday but the week still ended bearish with the All-Share Index down 3.11% and market cap slipping to ₦155.59tn. CBN Crackdown: The CBN issued fresh penalties for forex documentation breaches, including a N100m fine for banks handling FX without proper paperwork, as it tightens reporting and sanctions. Competition in Telecom Lending: Tinubu ordered FCCPC to dismantle Optasia’s alleged 12-year monopoly in airtime credit and data advance lending, targeting up to ₦3tn annual revenue unlock. Digital Payments Push: Flutterwave added Tempo’s stablecoin settlement rail (USDC/USDT) to expand cross-border payments. Energy & Infrastructure: FG began a $100m mini-grid push in Kogi (20MW Egume) and Nigeria’s reserves reportedly topped $50bn for the first time in three months. Trade & Investment: Tanzania plans stronger business ties with Nigeria via FAB West Africa 2026 in Lagos; Lagos also pitches itself as Africa’s investment gateway at Invest Lagos 3.0. Security & Social Pressure: Doctors threaten industrial action over assaults on healthcare workers; police arrested an Abuja “one-chance” syndicate after an 18-month probe. Humanitarian: US approved $240m for CRS humanitarian aid including Nigeria.

Dangote Refinery & NGX: Dangote’s refinery hit 700,000 bpd in a performance test, reshaping Africa’s fuel trade flows and strengthening the case for a major NGX re-rating ahead of the proposed IPO. Capital Markets: Analysts project the Dangote IPO could lift NGX market capitalisation by 30–40%, though near-term sell-offs may follow. FX & Reserves: The naira weakened to about N1,362/$ at the official market as reserves rose to $50.04bn, keeping currency pressure in focus for businesses. Banking Consolidation: The Supreme Court cleared the Providus–Unity merger, ending legal uncertainty and setting up a stronger bank for lending and inclusion. Public Procurement: The Bureau of Public Procurement plans a Nigeria E-Market to connect buyers and sellers digitally, aiming to cut human interference and boost transparency. Security & Business Risk: SSDC’s 2026 outlook flags internal threats, cyber risks and election instability as key business challenges heading into 2027. Trade & Regulation: FG moves to deregulate the airtime credit market to end Optasia’s long dominance, targeting more competition and reduced capital flight. Energy & Transport: Road safety funding and decentralised policing are highlighted as urgent fixes to curb insecurity and crashes that disrupt economic activity. Food Security & Health: UNN/FAO-linked calls push modern agricultural extension systems, while FG launches a bird flu response programme to protect poultry-linked livelihoods.

Repatriation & Xenophobia: Nigeria says it will repatriate over 1,000 nationals from South Africa as anti-immigrant violence flares, with screening for a voluntary scheme already started and waivers secured to avoid detention. Energy & Power: TCN warns of daily power outages in Delta State from June 4 to June 16 (10am–5pm) for transmission maintenance. FX Policy: CBN sets new travel cash rules, allowing up to $50,000 out with proof for amounts above $50,000, while tightening reporting for larger sums. Digital Identity: Nigeria’s NIN enrollment tops 130 million, with a World Bank-backed push to reach 180 million by end-2026. Capital Markets: SEC DG Emomotimi Agama says fintech apps are driving capital market growth as younger investors increasingly trade via mobile platforms. Petroleum & Gas: Algeria, Nigeria and Niger restart work to complete the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, targeting 20–30 bcm annually. Manufacturing Standards: Nigeria pushes quality and export-led production as 220 products from 131 companies win African Quality Mark certification. Transport Costs: Okada fares rise to N1,035.69 in April 2026, up 3.12% month-on-month, adding pressure to urban budgets. Security & Governance: Police investigate alleged interference in NSCDC Mining Marshals operations after a petition, while debates over insecurity and governance continue to dominate public discourse.

Cybersecurity Coordination: Nigeria is pushing a proposed National Cybersecurity Council to improve coordination and cyber resilience as DDoS attacks disrupt digital infrastructure. Diplomacy & Trade: Nigeria seeks deeper Korea-Africa partnership in green energy, health security and peacebuilding, while the U.S. highlights expanded counterterrorism cooperation with Nigeria. Capital Markets: Foreign capital inflows jumped 83.8% to $10.37bn in Q1 2026, but NGX investors still lost about N5.15tn in the first four June trading days amid profit-taking. FX & Reserves: The naira slightly weakened to about N1,358.75/$ at the official market, even as external reserves rose to around $49.96bn. Power & Infrastructure: TCN confirmed sabotage and vandalization of six Apir–Lafia 330kV towers, while Akwa Ibom inaugurated its electricity regulator board to overhaul power supply within 18 months. Aviation Finance Stress: Aviation agencies face cash crunch risk over federal revenue deductions, with stakeholders warning of possible insolvency. Agribusiness Jobs: Youth in Agribusiness Land Trust Fund targets 500,000 young entrepreneurs, and BATN Foundation granted N25.5m to 17 agripreneurs. Business Environment: NESG says corporate confidence improved in May, with manufacturing, services and trade showing fragile expansion. Security & Courts: Police secured permanent forfeiture of assets worth over N2bn in fraud cases, and Nigeria’s courts handed death sentences over the 2022 church attack.

Digital Skills Push: NCDMB has opened applications for its CRYP Programme, training eligible 300/400-level science, engineering and tech students in digital research, innovation and mentorship, with monthly stipends. Security & Governance: FG reacted to a Police–NSCDC Mining Marshals feud after a marshal’s death, with the Solid Minerals Minister warning against sabotage and misinformation. Exchange Rate Politics: Accord Party’s Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim promised a 2027 naira target of N500–N525/$ at an Abuja rally, blaming Tinubu’s administration for worsening hardship. State Police Debate: Rights groups urged transparency and constitutional safeguards as discussions on state police continue. Power Relief for Band A: NERC approved compensation rebates for Band A electricity customers over grid generation shortfalls, with clear steps to claim. Oil & Gas Investment: Tinubu approved preparations for Nigeria’s 2026 upstream licensing round for Q3 2026, targeting fresh investor participation. Capital Markets: NBS lauded NUPRC for transparent oil and gas data, supporting better national statistics and GDP tracking. Energy Transition: FG/NEMSA launched guidelines for interconnecting solar mini-grids to distribution networks, aiming to expand access. Court & Banking: A Lagos court ordered Access Bank to pay ₦16m damages for unlawfully restricting accounts tied to crypto-related claims. SME Financing: DBN disbursed over ₦1trn to MSMEs and unveiled a 5-year growth plan.

CBN Leadership Shake-up: The Central Bank of Nigeria redeployed four deputy governors effective June 1, moving Dr. Muhammad Abdullahi to Corporate Services, Philip Ikeazor to Economic Policy, Emem Usoro to Operations, and Lamido Yuguda to Financial System Stability—an internal reordering aimed at better coordination. Anti-Fraud Crackdown: EFCC arraigned Abu-Haneefa Oil & Gas MD Musa Abubakar, the firm and others before a Federal High Court in Abuja over alleged N691.7m fraud, conspiracy, corruption and money laundering. Power & Renewables Policy: NERC began Net Billing Regulations 2026 implementation, allowing eligible solar users to generate power and sell surplus to distribution companies, turning customers into “prosumers.” Trade & Finance Boost: IFC and Standard Chartered launched a $300m risk-sharing facility to expand supply chain finance across eight African countries including Nigeria, targeting $1.9bn in trade transactions. Market Watch: Nigeria’s equities extended sell-offs, with reports of major NGX losses and investors staying cautious as trading resumes. SME Support: FCMB says SMEs need more than loans—especially infrastructure, skills and digital transformation. Business Growth & Retail: Konga announced its mid-year shopping festival with deep discounts and expanded same-day delivery (KongaNow). Telecom Security Concern: Operators warn that vandalism and fibre cuts threaten service quality and network expansion.

CBN FX liberalisation: The apex bank has relaxed rules on domiciliary accounts, giving Nigerians “unrestricted access” to personal foreign-currency balances under its Foreign Exchange Manual 2026, while tightening documentation for exporters to improve FX liquidity and transparency. Tax pressure: Nigeria missed its Q1 2026 tax target by about $1.6bn as collections fell to N7.44tn versus N9.68tn projected, with weaker Companies Income Tax and lower petroleum royalties driving the shortfall. Fuel pricing reality check: Dangote Refinery cut ex-depot petrol by N25 (to N1,250/litre) and diesel to N1,700/litre, but most filling stations kept pump prices unchanged, offering little relief to motorists. Private sector momentum: Stanbic IBTC PMI showed Nigeria’s private sector growth hit a nine-month high in May, rising to 54.1 on stronger new orders and output despite cost pressures. Energy investment: Spiro raised $215m to expand EV battery-swapping across seven African markets, targeting more stations and new countries. Court and security: A Nigerian court sentenced four men to death by hanging over the 2022 Owo church attack, acquitting one; meanwhile, police released three NSCDC mining marshals detained over a colleague’s death after ministerial and presidential pressure. Banking expansion: CBN approved Abbey Mortgage Bank’s transition into a full commercial bank, widening retail, SME and digital services. Global trade shock: The US proposed additional tariffs on imports from countries including Bangladesh over forced-labour concerns, escalating trade tensions.

Housing Finance Push: Tinubu praises MOFI’s MREIF for delivering N128bn affordable mortgages to 1,859 families across 25 states, with up to 20-year tenors, fixed 9.75% interest and 10% minimum equity, unlocking N221bn property value. Banking Health Check: CBN says Nigeria’s bad loans rose to 8.03% in January as pandemic relief ended and reclassified troubled loans surfaced, while the regulator keeps tightening discipline. Monetary Liquidity Watch: CBN faces a June liquidity inflow of about N10.9tn, largely from maturing OMO bills, raising the stakes for sterilisation to avoid renewed inflation and FX pressure. Payments Drive: CBN Governor Cardoso unveils Payments System Vision 2028, arguing efficient payments can lift millions out of poverty and push digital inclusion to 95% by 2028. Innovation & IP: WIPO opens its first Sub-Saharan Africa office in Abuja, aiming to boost Nigeria’s innovation and intellectual property commercialization. Clean Mobility Investment: Spiro secures $215m to expand electric mobility infrastructure, including battery-swapping, across seven African markets. Security & Compliance: NSCDC Akwa Ibom arrests 39 suspects over alleged illegal militia-style training without proper licensing. Migration Returns: IOM evacuates 182 Nigerians from Libya, including two unaccompanied children, under EU-funded assisted voluntary return. Capital Markets: DMO opens June 2026 FGN Savings Bond at up to 14.777% for 3 years (and 13.777% for 2 years), running June 1–5.

Housing & Finance: Tinubu hails MREIF as it delivers N128bn mortgages to 1,859 families across 25 states, with up to 20-year tenors at 9.75% fixed interest. Digital Economy: CBN launches Payments System Vision 2028, targeting 95% financial inclusion, fraud losses below 1% and faster digital transactions by 2028. Food Prices: Statisense analysis of NBS data shows South-East states are now the costliest for a healthy diet, with some workers spending over 80% of the ₦70,000 minimum wage on food. Energy & Shipping: NLNG subsidiary BGT awards contracts for three new LNG vessels, targeting delivery in 2029 as it modernises its fleet. Markets: NGX All-Share Index slips 1.13% as profit-taking hits blue chips, with BUA Cement leading the drag. Telecoms & Lending: ALTON says airtime lending for about 40m users should soon fully return after FCCPC suspends DEON regulations and Airtel restarts airtime credit. Regulation & Courts: Supreme Court warns against abuse of ex parte orders in a major debt dispute, signalling tougher scrutiny for corporate asset seizures. Security & Labour: NUPRC workers resume nationwide operations after suspending a strike following negotiations. Trade & Diplomacy: Benin’s President Wadagni meets Tinubu in Abuja on trade, energy and maritime security, including ECOWAS matters.

Electoral Integrity & Party Money: A fresh warning on “money-sharing” in primaries and at polling units highlights how cash inducements and internal vote-buying are normalising electoral corruption ahead of 2027. ADC Presidential Primary Fallout: ADC ex-aspirant Hayatu-Deen rules out a legal challenge despite alleging irregularities, while Atiku and ex-SGF Babachir Lawal trade accusations over alleged rigging in the May 25 primary. Cost of Living Pressure: Petrol prices jumped from N175 to N1,300 between May 2023 and May 2026 (about 643%), with subsidy removal and naira devaluation cited as key drivers. Power & Business Impact: Despite $3.653bn World Bank-backed power funding since 2001, Nigeria’s grid instability persists, forcing heavy generator use (AfDB: 70.7% of firms). Capital Markets Upgrade: Nigeria’s NGX goes live on the T+1 settlement cycle, joining global markets and aiming to cut risk and speed up settlement. Labour & Wages: Federal workers reject the proposed N100,000 minimum wage as inadequate, citing inflation, insecurity and unpaid entitlements. Education Under Threat: NUT begins nationwide protests over school abductions in Oyo and Borno, with schools shut in Oyo as families demand release of abducted pupils and teachers. CBN Leadership Shake-up: CBN redeploys four deputy governors to new directorates as part of management reforms. Maritime Security Boost: Tinubu inaugurates three new naval vessels and a Combined Maritime Task Force for the Gulf of Guinea, pushing stronger maritime protection. Legal Sector Reform: NBA calls for urgent legal education overhaul toward practical, tech-driven training. Policy & Governance: Court dismisses a $19.6m suit against NNPCL, reinforcing that written contracts can’t be expanded via oral claims.

Politics & Elections: APM/IPAC chair Yusuf Dantalle urged Nigerians to “reject peanuts” and vote right ahead of 2027, while online debate flared after the National Grid monitor posted “GO GET YOUR PVC.” Security & Human Cost: NBS data says households paid over ₦2.23tn ransom to kidnappers between May 2023 and April 2024; in Kogi, troops rescued 23 kidnap victims after an attack on the Ayegunle–Bunu road. Power & Business Impact: TCN extended maintenance on the Jos–Bauchi–Gombe 330kV line until June 30, warning of limited supply (9am–6pm) for affected states. Energy & Fuel Prices: Dangote Refinery adjusted petrol ex-depot pricing again after earlier cuts, as global oil volatility and Middle East tensions feed into local pump costs. Trade & Finance: UAE envoy says First Abu Dhabi Bank will begin operations in Lagos soon and non-oil trade could hit about $8bn by 2027; CBN also extended PoS geo-fencing compliance deadline to August. Economy & Jobs: AfDB urged Africa to diversify energy mix and markets to cut hidden costs from power shortages, while analysts warn Nigeria’s stock sentiment may stay cautious in June. Sports & Culture: Peter Obi confirmed he’ll run again for president in January after winning NDC’s ticket, and Nigeria won the Unity Cup 3-0 over Jamaica.

NNPC Profit Surge: NNPC Ltd says it posted N481bn profit after tax in April, up from N276bn in March, with oil output rising to 1.68m bpd. Pension Governance: An arbitral tribunal ordered the removal of four directors of Premium Pensions over alleged PEP status, deepening corporate governance scrutiny in the sector. Power Sector Push: Tinubu’s new power adviser, Lanre Babalola, met NISO to discuss steps for better grid reliability and stability. Water Infrastructure Deal: Cross River signed a $42m PPP with Agua Global Services to revive the state’s water board under a 25-year framework. Banking Liquidity Watch: Banks’ deposits with the CBN fell to N91.1trn in May amid excess liquidity, while bad loans rose after forbearance ended. Credit Crunch Alarm: AERE warns of a ₦14tn private sector lending decline and calls it an economic emergency. Equities Caution: Analysts expect broadly cautious sentiment in June, with returns driven more by strong stocks than the whole market. Energy Transition Global: IEA says EVs displaced 1.7m bpd of oil in 2025 and could reach 5m bpd by 2030. Food Import Shift: Nigeria’s food import bill fell to $2.34bn in 2025, and its share of forex utilisation dropped sharply. Dangote Brand Boost: Dangote Industries was named Africa’s Most Admired Brand for the eighth straight year.

Politics & Elections: ADC’s David Mark warns insecurity and hardship are worsening, while a faction names Chris Uba as its 2027 presidential candidate, setting up a fragmented opposition race. Opposition Strategy: Peter Obi emerges NDC presidential candidate, pledges to cut corruption and the cost of governance, and picks Rabiu Kwankwaso as VP “partner, not spare tyre.” Security & Rights: SERAP urges the UN to refer Nigeria to the Security Council over abductions and killings; HURIWA rejects Defence Minister Musa’s “65–70%” security score as an insult to victims. Energy & Cost of Living: Cooking gas prices rise as LPG hits over ₦2,000/kg after depot increases; AfDB says power outages cost Nigerian firms about 3% of annual sales. Banking & Payments: CBN relaxes PoS geo-fencing rules, expanding operating radius to 70 metres and extending compliance to Aug 1. Oil & Gas Finance: NNPC Ltd reports N481bn profit in April as revenue jumps to N4.97tn. Trade & Food Imports: CBN data shows Nigeria spent $2.34bn on food imports in 2025, down from $2.53bn in 2024. Anti-Drug Operations: NDLEA seizes ketamine and ecstasy hidden in water purifier machines from Europe and intercepts military-grade ammunition. Business & Youth: AfDB calls for Africa to unlock $4tn savings for development; BAHGIA summit targets youths and startups with grants and mentorship.

NNPC Performance: NNPC says revenue jumped to N4.97tn in April 2026 (up from N2.77tn in March), with profit after tax rising to N481bn and crude output edging up to 1.68mbpd. Fuel Pricing: Dangote Refinery cut petrol gantry price to ₦1,250/litre from ₦1,275, though many stations still sell above ₦1,350. Monetary Policy: CBN withdrew N7.303tn and injected N5.734tn in May via liquidity operations, leaving a net withdrawal of N1.569tn. Minimum Wage Talks: Nigeria Governors’ Forum is considering a new national minimum wage of ₦100,000, citing inflation and cost-of-living pressures. Data Protection Compliance: FIJ reports major data controllers are processing personal data without registering with the Nigeria Data Protection Commission. Trade & Logistics: Nigeria and RwandAir extend the East/Southern Africa air cargo corridor to Kigali, Harare and Lusaka, with rates under $2/kg. Sports Integrity: NSC partners with EFCC to tackle corruption and improve integrity in Nigeria’s sports ecosystem. Politics: PDP anti-Wike faction affirms Goodluck Jonathan as 2027 consensus presidential candidate amid police blockade claims.

AI Governance: South Africa’s withdrawn AI policy is flagged as a warning for Nigeria and Africa—businesses adopting AI without strong oversight risk reputational, regulatory and even criminal fallout. Energy & Trade: Dangote Refinery is now the world’s biggest jet fuel exporter and plans a $10bn expansion, while ECOWAS pushes to operationalise the ECOWAS Business Council to deepen regional trade as Dangote backs a business council take-off. Fuel Subsidy Politics: Tinubu insists fuel subsidy removal saved Nigeria from bankruptcy, as governors urge a new minimum wage of ₦100,000 amid cost-of-living pressure. Health & Transport Infrastructure: Tinubu commissions nationwide health projects including a large emergency ambulance fleet and launches TETFund education projects; he also inaugurates four CNG projects to cut transport costs and boost cleaner fuel use. Public Health Alert: NCDC warns of high Ebola importation risk from DRC and Uganda, urging states to activate emergency preparedness. Markets & FX: Naira edges up at the official market post-Eid, while food imports hit $2.34bn in 2025, underscoring ongoing FX demand. Banking & Youth: Wema Bank names 10-year-old Ozoakpata as one-day MD/CEO winner, spotlighting early financial literacy.

Fuel & Energy: Global crude prices dipped as Iran–US–Israel tensions eased slightly, reviving hopes of lower pump prices in Nigeria, even as diesel costs remain high after NBS showed April 2026 diesel averaged N2,474.69/litre (+43.67% year-on-year). Tinubu at 3: President Tinubu’s third-anniversary statement defended reforms and subsidy/forex changes, while critics including Atiku and ex-minister Dalung said hardship has worsened. Opposition Politics: Atiku won ADC nomination to challenge Tinubu, setting up a familiar 2023-style matchup as opposition unity faces strain. Minimum Wage Debate: Omoyele Sowore renewed calls for a ₦500,000 minimum wage, arguing politicians have money but priorities are wrong. Security & Governance: Defence Minister Christopher Musa put security performance at 65–70%, while MACBAN rejected US claims linking “30,000 Fulani militants” to the 14.5m peaceful Fulani population. Business & Markets: Nigeria signed a $1.5bn concession for the 460MW Grand Katsina-Ala hydropower project; World Bank confirmed DISREP for power distribution recovery continues. Trade & Investment: Nigeria’s aviation reforms gained momentum with AfDB talks on the $7bn aviation transformation, while Accor and Shoreline plan a national hotel platform with up to 10 hotels by 2030.