AGP Executive Report

FX Watch: Naira firmed at the official market to about ₦1,328/$ after CBN injected $151m, while it also gained versus pound and euro, as traders watched supply and demand. Markets: NGX rebounded slightly (+0.06%) on bargain-hunting, with energy and banking leading gains, though sentiment stayed mixed. Energy & Industry: LEKOIL says it is moving from portfolio building to production growth, targeting 100,000 bpd and pushing gas commercialization. Downstream Update: NNPC commissioned Abuja’s first self-service smart filling station and plans 50–70 more; meanwhile marketers kept petrol largely stable even as Brent rose above $107, with diesel pressured higher. Telecoms: NCC data shows Nigeria’s active subscriptions hit 195.1m in July, with MTN crossing 100m subscribers. Capital Markets: Dangote Refinery IPO subscription closes soon (FGN savings bonds also close today), while investors track NGX volatility around the listing. Security & Crime: South Africa will extradite six Nigerians to the US over an alleged R100m romance scam linked to “Black Axe.” Trade & Diplomacy: Nigeria’s VP Shettima heads to India for the BRICS summit as Nigeria pushes trade and investment in local currencies. Policy & Business Climate: IPCR urges sustained peacebuilding investment to shift from reacting to conflicts to prevention.

Education & Connectivity: FG says Nigerian students in public secondary schools and tertiary institutions will get 100MB free daily data from October 1, 2026 for approved educational websites and digital learning platforms, with NCC coordinating alongside telecom operators (MTN, Airtel, Glo) and the education ministry; the zero-rated access is expected to cost telcos about N180bn annually. Capital Markets: NGX All-Share Index edged up 0.1% to 242,378.13 points as Seplat, Access, Transcorp and GTCO lifted sentiment, but the market still ended September-to-date down 0.8% amid heavy sell pressure. Petroleum Regulation & Competition: FCCPC and NMDPRA signed a pact to boost transparency and fair competition in the petroleum sector, while IPMAN urged Dangote Refinery to widen direct PMS allocation to all registered independent marketers. Financial Crime Fight: NFIU plans a new framework to unite banks, fintechs and insurers to detect and disrupt financial crimes through shared intelligence. Trade & Ports: Lagos ports handled about 84.6% of Nigeria’s Q2 2026 trade value (N41.44tn), reinforcing Apapa, Lekki and Tin Can as key gateways. Environment & Circular Economy: NESREA accredited REDIN as an automotive recycling Producer Responsibility Organisation to enforce end-of-life vehicle responsibility and drive a circular economy. Global Economic Diplomacy: Nigeria seeks stronger trade and investment ties with Jamaica as BRICS leaders converge in New Delhi for a summit focused on food, energy and supply chain security.

Markets & IPO Watch: Nigeria’s equities market slid again as investors de-risked ahead of the Dangote Refinery IPO, with NGX All-Share Index down 1.05% and market cap losing N1.67trn to N157.05trn. Oil & Gas Regulation: NUPRC warned flare-gas awardees that permits could be revoked if they fail to make “considerable progress,” with 27 flare sites already awarded under the NGFCP. FX & Cost of Living: The naira opened firmer at about ₦1,322.72/$ on the official window, while the parallel market stayed weaker around ₦1,380–₦1,390. Aviation Insurance Oversight: NAICOM and NCAA signed an MoU to strengthen compliance and risk protection for aviation operators. Digital Economy & Inclusion: NCC flagged high device/connectivity costs and limited accessibility as barriers for persons with disabilities, pushing for more inclusive digital transformation. Agribusiness & Food Security: NCX, BOA and AFAN launched a Guaranteed Minimum Price programme to protect 500,000+ farmers and secure 400,000 metric tonnes of grains. Infrastructure & Trade: Nigeria and Cameroon launched the Mfum-Ekok border modernisation initiative to cut bottlenecks and boost AfCFTA trade. BRICS Angle: BRICS leaders meet in New Delhi this weekend as India ramps up security and movement protocols for the expanded bloc.

Terror Financing Crackdown: EFCC boss Ola Olukoyede urged Oyo State to pass a law to register, monitor and supervise non-profit organisations to stop NPOs being used for terrorism financing, following a South-West risk assessment. Illicit Financial Flows: ANEEJ trained CSOs and media in Uyo to prioritise investigations into illicit financial flows draining Nigeria and Africa, saying citizens bear the cost. Aviation Insurance Oversight: NAICOM and NCAA signed an MoU to strengthen aviation insurance compliance, risk protection and information sharing, including a joint technical committee. Capital Markets—Dangote IPO Shock: Investors sold off ahead of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO, wiping about N1.67tn off NGX equities and pushing the All-Share Index down. Oil & Gas Regulation: NUPRC warned gas flare site awardees that permits may be revoked if sites are not utilised, while also pushing stronger Nigerian participation in offshore value chains. FX and Markets: The naira edged up at the official market while stock market sentiment stayed fragile amid IPO-driven repositioning. Border Trade: Nigeria and Cameroon began joint assessment of the Ekok-Mfum One-Stop Border Post to cut delays and improve cross-border trade. Education Finance: Vice President Shettima said NELFUND is removing barriers to tertiary education by covering tuition and monthly upkeep for indigent students. Cybersecurity Warning: CBN cautioned banks and fintechs about third-party technology and cyber risks that could spread across the financial system. Food Security Pressure: North Nigeria faces mounting strain as insecurity and multiple taxation hit businesses and farmers, with reports of illegal levies on farm access and harvest.

Naira & FX Watch: The naira inched up at the official market, gaining 31 kobo to trade around N1,320/$1, as gross FX reserves rose to about $54.08bn, supporting expectations of relative stability. Stock Market Shock: Profit-taking and broad sell-offs wiped about N1.88tn off investors’ wealth, with NGX All-Share Index down 1.17% and banking/insurance hit hardest. Dangote Refinery IPO Push: Aliko Dangote says the refinery’s IPO is “for the people,” with a simplified, BVN-based process aimed at letting ordinary Nigerians buy shares. Capital Market Signals: Nigeria’s return to FTSE Frontier Market status is set to reflect in index changes, with six Nigerian firms—led by FirstHoldCo, Zenith, GTCO, Dangote Cement, Aradel and MTN—earmarked for the FTSE Frontier 50. Policy Coordination: Nigeria’s Economic Management Team approved a committee to harmonise fiscal and monetary projections to improve budget credibility and performance. Maritime Trade Deal: APM Terminals entered exclusive talks for the Badagry Deep Sea Port, a move aimed at boosting deepwater capacity and regional transshipment. Local Governance: Lagos began resident consultations for the 2027 budget across its divisions, letting communities shape priorities and track last year’s requests. Health & Inclusion: CIBN urged that economic gains must show in Nigerians’ lives, while a new study flags widespread stockouts of maternal micronutrient supplements, worsening anaemia risks.

2027 Political Economy Test: Tinubu’s reforms face a tough 2027 verdict as Nigerians weigh macro gains against cost-of-living pain, with critics pointing to hardship and capital flight. PFIPC Probe Deepens: The PFIPC scandal widens beyond denials, as questions grow over how a “non-existent” body appeared in federal budget paperwork and recruitment approvals. Election Funding Row: NDC rejects claims of irregularities in candidate financing, saying donations and levies were lawful and receipted. CBN Anti-Terror Focus: CBN elevates terrorism financing supervision, tightening transaction monitoring, suspicious reporting and targeted sanctions compliance. Dangote IPO & Expansion: Dangote Refinery eyes $14.3bn expansion to 1.4m bpd by 2029 and an IPO offer of 4.1bn shares at NGN525, targeting millions of retail investors. Markets Slide: NGX sell-off wipes N1.88tn as banking and insurance stocks drag equities. Trade & Reserves: Nigeria’s Q2 trade surplus hits N12.6tn and foreign reserves cross $54bn, while naira strength faces short-term pressure. Education Integrity Push: FG says digital reforms will curb certificate racketeering; universities urged to diversify funding beyond government. ECOWAS ECO Push: ECOWAS orders steps to fast-track the ECO single currency timeline toward 2027. Maritime Deal: FG begins exclusive talks with APM Terminals on Badagry deep seaport development. Court Upholds NEXIM Fraud: Appeal court affirms 490-year jail term for ex-NEXIM MD Robert Orya over N2.4bn fraud.

Dangote IPO Push: Aliko Dangote signs IPO documents for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, offering 4.1bn shares at ₦525 each to raise about ₦2.15tn, with a minimum of 10 shares (₦5,250) and plans to expand capacity to 1.4m bpd by 2029. Power Market Pressure: NISO orders electricity Discos to start settling outstanding market debts after netting off 97% of 2015–2020 obligations, warning some payment proposals are unacceptable and sanctions may follow. FX Watch: Naira firms in the official market, trading around ₦1,320/$, while the parallel market widens the gap, keeping pressure on importers and pricing. Capital Market Mood: NGX/OTC activity stays mixed but resilient as the NASD OTC index rises and NGX market cap again crosses ₦160tn. Digital Finance Growth: FairMoney hits 30m users, betting on deeper services for individuals and MSMEs. Policy & Politics: INEC unveils a real-time election readiness tracker for 2027; meanwhile, Atiku and Fayemi renew the fuel-subsidy debate, framing it as political strategy versus economic fix. Aviation & Trade: Ethiopian Airlines adds four weekly flights to Port Harcourt, lifting Nigeria routes to 53 weekly flights. Anti-Corruption Justice: CCT seeks to upgrade into a National Anti-Corruption Court with faster, nationwide corruption trials.

Dangote Refinery IPO: Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has kicked off its landmark N2.15trn IPO, offering 4.1bn shares at N525 each with a minimum N5,250 subscription, targeting up to 10 million retail investors across Africa as it plans to double capacity to 1.4m bpd. NGX Rally: The listing of Dangote Sugar Refinery shares helped NGX market cap reclaim the N160trn level, rising to N160.60trn as investors chased gains despite weak market breadth. Trade Surplus Boost: Nigeria’s Q2 2026 merchandise trade surplus jumped 66.8% to N12.59trn (exports N27.02trn; imports N14.42trn), strengthening FX inflow prospects. Policy Coordination: FG moved to end conflicting economic projections by setting up an inter-agency committee to harmonise budget assumptions like oil price, exchange rate and inflation. Elections Readiness: INEC unveiled a real-time operational tracker to spot and fix 2027 election preparedness issues early across states. Energy & Finance: Nomba secured a $3m debt facility to scale cross-border payments, while IMF warned debt-service pressure is rising for developing economies.

Dangote Refinery IPO Watch: Nigeria’s SEC has cleared Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s about $1.6bn IPO, with the offer pegged at 4.1bn shares at ₦525—an early test of African capital-market appetite. Energy & Fuel Pricing: Reports say Dangote petrol is now cheaper than imported fuel by roughly ₦45–₦46 per litre, even as depot rates hold steady, intensifying pressure on import-parity pricing. Capital Markets: Nigeria’s SEC says T+1 settlement is running smoothly, while NGX closed the week up about N3.7tn as investors rotated into frontier-eligible names. FX & Liquidity: Official FX turnover fell 21% week-on-week to $2.41bn as market activity slowed, with the naira also showing mixed movement. Consumer & Regulation: FCCPC has opened a probe into Uber’s exit, focusing on unfulfilled services; meanwhile, SEC and customs updates point to tighter market and trade oversight. Healthcare Cashless Worry: FCT public hospital patients allege cash-only payments and unclear receipts, raising accountability concerns. Governance & Delivery: FCT’s National Library project faces sanctions risk as the education minister orders contractors to hit timelines. Maritime Finance: FG pushes to fast-track the long-delayed Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund disbursement to shipowners.

Oil & Security: An NGO says at least 37 people died in Rivers State after suspected fuel thieves inhaled fumes during pipeline tapping, with many others missing. Pharma Localisation: NAFDAC says its “5+5” policy and Ceiling List are boosting local drug production, with local firms rising and import dependence falling. Trade & Growth: Nigeria’s foreign policy push is being framed as a business tool, with officials urging firms to use ECOWAS/ETLS and AfCFTA to expand markets. Cost of Living Politics: Atiku accuses Tinubu of deepening hardship after subsidy removal, while Tinubu’s camp points to price stability claims. Cash Transfer Probe: SERAP demands investigation of alleged N78.8bn unaccounted cash transfer funds, citing Auditor-General findings; Falana also calls for EFCC action. Drug War: NDLEA arrests a convicted cocaine trafficker posing as a herbal tea seller and warns of Mexican-linked meth labs in Ogun/Oyo forests. Consumer Watchdog: FCCPC begins probing Uber’s Nigeria exit over unfulfilled customer services. Energy Markets: OPEC+ maintains output for October as Nigeria seeks higher production; WAEP targets 1.6bn barrels and gas monetisation within 24 months. Markets: NGX All-Share Index rises 2.36% to ND106.3trn as investors gain.

Cash Transfer Accountability: Nigeria’s Auditor-General says government can’t prove ₦33.75bn reached 3.29m households under the 2023 cash transfer, citing missing Remita payment statements and alleged obstruction by NCTO staff. Anti-graft Pressure: A former lawmaker has given the EFCC a 14-day ultimatum to reopen and prosecute Atiku over alleged financial crimes, while the EFCC pushes a new “freeze suspicious transfers” approach to stop money moving before investigators act. Energy & Trade: Nigeria formally joins the IEA as an Association country, deepening global energy cooperation, and gets a two-year AGOA extension that reopens duty-free US export opportunities for Nigerian firms. Markets & FX: The naira strengthened slightly to about ₦1,321/$ at the official market as reserves hit $54bn, while equities and OTC activity showed gains. Security & Governance: INEC and police warn politicians against threats and intimidation ahead of 2027. Public Health & Safety: Akwa Ibom bans ambulances for corpse transport, warning of infection risks. Food Security: NPBA urges more investment in agricultural research and plant breeding to tackle food insecurity. Infrastructure & Real Estate: Port modernization in the South-South is already driving a land and logistics property boom.

Security & Politics: APM dares President Tinubu and Defence Minister Christopher Musa to drive on Nigerian roads without armed escorts, citing the 2026 Global Terrorism Index and alleged ransom payments. Transport & Regulation: FAAN denies it drove Uber’s exit from Nigeria, saying airport rules were about passenger safety, accountability and curbing touting, as Uber shuts down ride-hailing operations from Sept 2. Energy & Cost of Living: Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde blames border failures for fuel hikes and says Nigerians shouldn’t pay for government’s inability to secure borders, while Olawepo-Hashim calls Tinubu’s fuel pricing policy “insanity,” arguing petrol could sell around N605/litre. Elections & Democracy: South-East youth groups protest alleged N150m billboard fees for 2027 campaigns, warning democracy could become a preserve of the wealthy. Social Protection & Accountability: Nigeria draws another $208.29m from the World Bank’s National Social Safety Net Programme-Scale Up, while Atiku vows to probe audit concerns over N33.75bn cash transfer funds. Markets & Business: SEC approves Dangote refinery IPO, with order book set to open Sept 14; Nigeria’s external reserves hit $54.08bn; FairMoney surpasses 30m registered users; SUNU Assurances lists new shares worth N9.34bn post-recapitalisation. Trade & Growth: FG sensitises businesses on ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS) and AfCFTA opportunities. Health & Workforce: OSN warns “japa” of ophthalmologists could cost Nigeria about $150,000 annually per specialist, as it pushes for better retention and rural deployment.

Capital Markets: SEC has cleared Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO, with plans to sell 4.1bn shares at N525 each, potentially raising about N2.15tn and valuing the refinery around $47bn—an investor appetite test for Africa’s biggest share sale. FX & Macroeconomy: The naira strengthened on the NFEM to about N1,322.50/$ as the week ended, even as official FX turnover fell sharply to $2.14bn. Business Climate: NESG says Nigeria’s business performance index rose to 112.7 in August, the highest since February 2026, with manufacturing leading while investment stayed in contraction. Transport & Mobility: Uber shut down Nigeria after 12 years, while FAAN insists the exit is Uber’s business choice and links airport frictions to passenger experience and airport pickup rules. Energy & Aviation: Nigeria added 322,800 scheduled airline seats in September (1.19m total), and Delta targets 120MW power boost via gas-linked private partnership. Social & Policy: First Lady Tinubu launched the South-South National Community Food Bank programme in Calabar to tackle child malnutrition. Governance & Trade: Nigeria urged the AU to cut reliance on external funding for peace and conflict prevention. Security: NSCDC rescued 15 trafficked children and recovered stolen rifles, dismantling a telecom vandalism syndicate.

Dangote IPO Watch: Nigeria’s SEC has approved Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO at ₦525 per share, offering 4.1 billion shares and targeting about ₦2.15tn ($1.55bn), with the offer expected to open around Sept. 14 as the refinery seeks to more than double capacity. FX & Reserves: The naira strengthened to about ₦1,302/$ at the official market and external reserves crossed $54bn for the first time since 2008, boosting confidence in liquidity. Fuel Subsidy Politics: Opposition and labour voices renewed the subsidy argument, with Atiku accusing Tinubu’s hardship of pushing youths to sell kidneys, while PENGASSAN says the debate is over and Nigerians must now see benefits. Housing & Jobs: FG opened applications for ₦50m equity-free grants for 50 student ventures, while it also discussed large-scale housing partnerships with a Chinese firm to tackle Nigeria’s housing deficit. Local Business & Mobility: PromiseLand will launch ProTaxi, a homegrown e-hailing platform, on Oct. 1. Security & Health: NARD demanded prosecution after an alleged assault on a doctor in Abuja, and reports said 37 died from toxic fumes during alleged petrol theft in Rivers.

NGX Market Update: Nigeria’s stock market rebounded on Thursday, gaining N239bn as Seplat Energy surged 10% and other counters lifted sentiment; the All-Share Index rose 0.15% to 246,388.22 and market cap hit N159.153tn, though breadth stayed negative. FX Watch: The naira strengthened in the official market, closing at N1,315.67/$1 on Friday, while parallel rates held around N1,375/$1, supported by higher reserves and improved liquidity. Energy & Investment: Nigeria and the International Energy Agency signed an energy data and policy Joint Work Programme as the country begins IEA partnership, with IEA chief Fatih Birol saying Nigeria could double energy investment within five years. Digital Transformation: NITDA and NACCIMA signed an MoU to accelerate business digital transformation ahead of wider adoption of digital tools across enterprises. Agribusiness Trade: Nigeria resumed onion exports to Ghana after diplomatic intervention, highlighting ongoing non-tariff barriers in intra-ECOWAS trade. Petrol Pressure: Depot PMS prices are edging above N1,300/litre, raising fears of another fuel shock for households and transporters. Ride-hailing Shock: Uber’s exit continues to ripple through drivers and the market, while inDrive says it will keep investing and operating in multiple Nigerian cities.

FTSE Russell Index Move: FTSE Russell says 10 Nigerian firms—GTCO, Zenith Bank, Dangote Cement, First HoldCo, MTN Nigeria, Nestlé Nigeria, Nigerian Breweries, Presco, Stanbic IBTC and Aradel—are newly eligible for its Frontier Index Series ahead of Nigeria’s frontier reclassification effective Sept 21. Power & Education: Nigeria’s Education Minister Alausa says university campuses will be taken off the national grid via dedicated solar mini-grids to stabilise learning and research. Energy Policy Push: Nigeria and the IEA sign a Joint Work Programme on energy policy, investment and security as Nigeria’s IEA association status is framed as a reform win. Ride-hailing Shock: Uber exits Nigeria after 12 years, intensifying pressure on e-hailing economics as competition rises; Bolt vows to stay. Oil Theft Deaths: An NGO reports at least 37 deaths in Rivers State after people inhaled fumes during pipeline fuel theft. Public Finance/Markets: NGX All-Share Index edges up 0.15% to close at 246,388.22 points, with market cap rising by about N238bn. Security & Governance: Nigeria Police disburses N2.317bn insurance and welfare benefits to 2,971 beneficiaries; a court orders a detained alleged “fake” PFIPC DG to access lawyers.