AGP Executive Report

Oil & Gas Awards: OGTAN HCD excellence awards honoured NCDMB’s Felix Ogbe, NUPRC’s Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Renaissance Africa’s Ofure Chizi and Chevron Nigeria at the OGTAN HCD Conference in Effurun, with calls to put human capital at the centre of Nigeria’s gas push. Energy & Regulation: Chevron’s Jim Swartz urged a predictable, transparent regulatory framework to unlock investment and jobs, while NMDPRA flagged possible up to 5% revenue fines for anti-competitive midstream/downstream operators. Markets & FX: The naira closed the week stronger at about N1,346/$ on official markets as weekly FX turnover jumped to $4.52bn; NGX also stayed under pressure with another sell-off. Equities: NGX shed about N444bn as Customs Street fell 0.29%, extending the bearish run. Politics & Economy: Fuel subsidy debate deepened as Ben Murray-Bruce rejected a return, urging state-funded transport; Tinubu also mocked Osun’s “Half Salary” claim. Security: DHQ said troops rescued 51 kidnapped victims and neutralised scores of criminals in one week. Consumer Tech: DStv/GOtv subscribers reported activation delays after payments, disrupting viewing as the Premier League returned. Business & Credit: Foremost Capital secured an investment-grade BBB+ rating from DataPro. Osun Governance: EFCC lifted its post-no-debit restriction on Osun government accounts after Tinubu’s order, following an investigation into ecology/intervention funds.

NGX Market Mood: Nigeria’s stock market slid again, with investors losing about N444bn as the All-Share Index fell 0.29% to 239,351 and market cap dropped to N154.53tn, driven by extended profit-taking in energy and banking stocks. Fuel Subsidy Politics: Fuel subsidy remains the hottest economic campaign issue as Atiku hit back at Tinubu, arguing subsidy removal triggered fuel-price, FX and cost-of-living shocks, while Tinubu called Atiku’s plan “economic ignorance.” Elections & Security: The IRI warned that insecurity and election-related political violence are the biggest threats to 2027 polls, while a cyber expert cautioned against using Android 10-powered BVAS devices. Power & Bonds: Geregu Power confirmed it has cleared its defaulted N40.09bn bond obligations, paying bondholders after a missed coupon payment. Campaign Trail: Peter Obi officially kicked off his 2027 campaign, pushing a production-led economy and urging candidates to defend records. Health & Human Capital: NACA/WHO raised alarm over about 45,000 new HIV infections, urging prevention tools and testing. Education Tech Push: Secondary school principals demanded overhaul of digital infrastructure and better teacher welfare to make Nigeria’s digital education work. Industrial Revival: FG signed an agreement to revive Delta Steel with $1.3bn investment, targeting full operations within 18–24 months.

Oil & Gas Recovery: NUPRC data shows Nigeria’s crude and condensate output rose to about 1.735mbpd in June for a fourth straight month as pipeline losses fall and security improves in the Niger Delta. Halal Export Push: VP Shettima says Nigeria, despite being the world’s 7th-largest Halal economy, has under 1% global share, urging stronger certification, financing and export links to the Gulf. Macroeconomic Outlook: PwC Strategy& forecasts 4.2% GDP growth in 2026, but warns recovery is concentrated in a few sectors. Customs Revenue Surge: Apapa Customs hits a record N28.1bn in 24 hours, citing better compliance, trade facilitation and digital processes. Subsidy Accountability: NECA wants states and LGs to account for N10.4trn subsidy savings shared from petrol removal. Digital Infrastructure: FG says 90,000km fibre rollout starts in October under Project BRIDGE. Airport E-hailing Fallout: FAAN restrictions on Uber/Bolt at airports spark higher fares and ride scarcity. Security & Economy: Mining marshals plan tougher action against illegal mining cartels funding crime. Education & Skills: TETFund to unlock North Central’s growth with ₦2.53bn per university and related allocations. Tech for Students: Google offers eligible Nigerian students free 12-month Gemini/AI Plus access worth N92,400. Politics & Fuel Subsidy Row: Tinubu and Atiku trade blows over plans to return or not return petrol subsidy.

Fuel Subsidy Showdown: Atiku Abubakar says he’ll restore petrol subsidy in 2027, but with a new “production subsidy” model that caps spending, tracks every subsidised barrel and ties benefits to domestic refineries—while the Presidency calls it deceptive and warns it could derail recovery. Market & Finance: Nigeria’s stock market extended losses for a second day, shedding about N440bn as investors took profit in banks, consumer goods and oil & gas; UBA also appointed Ibrahim Puri as non-executive director pending CBN approval. Energy & Power: FG commissioned upgraded Lagos substations adding 272MW to the grid, while NISO and NBET pushed for better electricity market liquidity to attract investors. Consumer Pressure: Lagos/Ogun residents say cooking gas retail prices remain far above depot rates despite recent cuts, urging regulators to act. Security & Humanitarian: 83 Nigerians returned from South Africa after xenophobic attacks; in Onitsha, a lawyer demands prosecution over alleged police shooting of unarmed traders. Digital & Education: EU pledged €820m for Nigeria’s digital ecosystem via innovation hub standards, and Google offers eligible Nigerian students 12 months of free Google AI Plus.

Markets & Finance: The Nigerian Exchange extended its losing streak to seven sessions, with the All-Share Index down 0.36% and market value shedding about ₦556bn to ₦155.4tn, dragged by energy and insurance sell-offs. Capital Markets & Corporate Debt: Geregu Power reportedly paid ₦6.03bn to bond investors after default concerns, easing pressure around its N40.09bn Series 1 bond. Trade & Policy: Nigeria and China’s trade rose sharply after China’s zero-tariff push, with bilateral trade hitting about $18bn in H1 and China imports from Nigeria up 80% to $2.3bn. Consumer Protection: FCCPC opened a major probe into cement pricing after complaints that Nigeria’s cement costs stay higher than peers despite local production capacity. Education Funding: Tinubu directed that legally cleared EFCC recoveries and unclaimed dividends/dormant account funds be channelled to NELFUND to expand student support. SMEs & Fintech: Canva Africa and Paystack launched an AI-powered creative bundle for eligible Nigerian merchants. Agritech & Food Security: FCMB deepened agritech with AI advisory in local languages to improve farmers’ access to finance and guidance. Infrastructure & Housing: FG approved over ₦610bn in road projects and 600 housing units for armed forces personnel. Elections & Economy: Campaign season for 2027 kicks off as parties trade claims on reforms, cost of living and security, while HURIWA urges candidates to focus on policy over hate speech.

Subsidy Savings & Fiscal Cost: Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says petrol subsidy removal mobilised ₦15.8tn for the federation between June 2023 and Dec 2025, with ₦5.4tn to the federal government and ₦10.4tn shared to states and local councils, while a separate scorecard shows Nigeria spent ₦10.61tn extra on debt service—about ₦4.14tn more than strategic infrastructure in the same period. Education Funding Push: Tinubu directs EFCC-recovered liquid funds and unclaimed dividends from capital market trust and dormant accounts into NELFUND, with legal challenges excluded; the move targets support for over 1.2 million students. Consumer Protection: FCCPC orders manufacturers and importers to withdraw goods with incomplete or misleading labels, warning of health, safety and economic risks. Power & Infrastructure: FG inaugurates eight transformers in Lagos adding 780MVA capacity, while Japan’s JICA commits ₦20bn (¥2.35bn) to rehabilitate and expand the national grid, including Apapa substation. Elections & Media Rules: NBC warns broadcasters and online publishers against election misinformation and hate speech as 2027 campaigns begin. Skills Over Certificates: Tinubu tells vice-chancellors to align university outputs with labour market needs, stressing practical skills; Rivers’ Fubara backs vocational and technical education. Security & Diplomacy: FG urges South Africa to act urgently against xenophobic/afrophobic attacks on Nigerians. Market Watch: NGX sentiment stays weak as investors take profit, with reports of further losses and market cap pressure.

NGX Market Mood: Nigeria’s stock market extended losses as investors took profit, with the All-Share Index down 0.35% and market cap shedding about N545bn to N155.97tn, led by declines in banking and other sectors. Maritime Trade Boost: The US Coast Guard lifted the 12-year Condition of Entry on Nigerian vessels, a win for port competitiveness and maritime security. IMF vs Tinubu: The IMF warned Tinubu’s administration over transparency concerns in a $5bn derivatives financing deal with First Abu Dhabi Bank, raising fears of opaque off-book borrowing. Non-Oil Export Push: Zenith Bank will host its 10th International Trade Seminar on Non-Oil Export on Aug 25, focusing on value chains, market access and export financing. Cement Price Probe: FCCPC says preliminary findings show possible cement price manipulation, comparing Nigeria’s retail costs with Kenya and others. Digital Payments Trust: OPay says it’s deepening compliance and governance with AI-driven AML/CFT monitoring to keep fraud rates extremely low. Electricity Upgrade: FG commissioned upgraded transmission infrastructure for Alausa and Lekki, adding 272MW bulk power capacity. Drug War Win: NDLEA dismantled an international cocaine cartel, arresting “KC Luxury” and recovering cocaine valued at about N39bn. Elections Framework: INEC plans to deploy 1.4m ad-hoc staff across 176,000 polling units for 2027 and urges issue-based campaigns.

Food Inflation Politics: The African Democratic Congress (ADC) says Nigeria’s easing headline inflation to 15.43% in July is not fixing the cost of staple foods, accusing the Tinubu administration of “running out of ideas” and urging faster action on food production, reserves and lower input, energy and transport costs. Maritime Trade Boost: The US Coast Guard has lifted the 12-year Condition of Entry on Nigerian vessels, after assessments found improved port security and better compliance with the ISPS code—an upgrade expected to ease shipping frictions. Anti-Drug Enforcement: NDLEA arrested Lagos socialite KC Luxury (KC Luxury) with 184.5kg cocaine worth about N39bn as he tried to flee to Paris, alongside a logistics staffer. Power Sector Turnaround: NERC gave Kaduna DisCo’s interim board one year to cut losses and close the metering gap, after repeated performance failures. Consumer Protection Watch: FCCPC says its cement probe shows possible price manipulation, comparing Nigeria’s cement costs with other markets. Capital Markets: BOI hailed Tinubu after its ₦250bn Series 1 bond was oversubscribed within five days, citing investor confidence in Nigeria’s domestic market. Security & Economy: Gunmen killed at least 24 in Plateau State, deepening instability risks for livelihoods and trade. Oil & Industry Signals: Tantita said pipeline surveillance is improving crude output and restoring safer farming and fishing in the Niger Delta. Business & Growth: Montage Africa Mines secured a new exploration licence in Ebonyi for lead and zinc, expanding Nigeria’s solid minerals push.

Power Upgrade in Lagos: TCN commissioned upgraded Ijora and Apapa substations, adding 208MW to the national grid—Ijora up to 230MVA and Apapa Road to 180MVA—aimed at easing bottlenecks around Apapa, Tin Can Island Port and major industrial corridors. Housing Finance Push: FG, through FMBN’s National Housing Fund (NHF) Mortgage Loan, opened a pathway for eligible Nigerians to access up to N50m at ≤6% interest via accredited Primary Mortgage Banks, with repayment up to 30 years. Inflation vs Cost of Living: Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.43% in July, but economists point to persistent food-price pressure, with food inflation rising to 20.31%, keeping household costs high. Security and Trade Controls: NDLEA vowed to crush drug cartels as it destroyed illicit drugs in Lagos; Nigeria Customs named importers behind 399 pump-action rifles seized at Tin-Can Island. Ports and Logistics Friction: Truckers are reportedly shunning NPA truck parks at Onne Port, worsening cargo evacuation delays. Digital Inclusion Plan: FG says it will install 3,700 telecom towers to connect rural and riverine communities by mid-2027. Markets/Business: BOI’s N250bn bond closed oversubscribed; HBM Nigeria reported H1’26 profit up 57% to N208bn. ECOWAS Startup Awards: ECOWAS set Sept. 28 for a $65,000 (N91m) startup competition for 60 firms across fintech, agri-tech, ed-tech, cleantech and more.

Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.43% in July, down from 15.91% in June, but food inflation jumped to 20.31% as prices of staples like rice, yam, plantain, pepper and tomatoes accelerated. CBN Cash Policy: The CBN revised ATM rules, keeping withdrawals from your own bank free while charging ₦100 per ₦20,000 for using other banks’ ATMs, with off-site operators allowed extra surcharges. Security & Crime: The NSA, Nuhu Ribadu, launched a 2027–2031 national strategy to tackle organised crime, linking threats like cybercrime, drug trafficking and corruption. Anti-Corruption in Health: FG and ICPC set up a joint task team to plug weaknesses and prevent diversion of health funds. Business & Markets: NGX opened the week lower as decliners outpaced gainers, with market value slipping slightly and the All-Share Index falling. Trade & Governance: ECOWAS reviewed tobacco excise rules in Conakry amid new nicotine products and illicit trade concerns. Tech & Inclusion: Girls Tech Boot Camp is training 300 secondary school girls nationwide in AI, data science and Python to close the gender tech gap. Public Spending Scrutiny: MonITNG questioned a ₦3bn Abuja solar streetlight budget, noting the Nigerian Film Corporation is listed as implementing agency despite its film-industry mandate. Sports & Economy: NFF inaugurated a fact-finding committee to diagnose Nigeria’s national teams’ poor outings, including the Super Falcons’ failure to qualify for the 2027 Women’s World Cup. Aviation Cost Pressure: Air Peace said it lost about $42m in revenue after repeated ground-handling damage that keeps aircraft out of service.

Capital Markets: Bank of Industry (BOI) closed its maiden N250bn Series 1 fixed-rate bond, oversubscribed within five working days, with strong institutional demand from PFAs, banks, DFIs and corporates, plus anchor support from NSIA and IFC. Corporate Finance: Union Bank of Nigeria obtained PCI DSS v4.0.1 certification (effective Aug 11), strengthening payment card data security across its card issuance, ATM/POS acquiring and payment processing operations. Energy & Industry: NLNG and NCDMB broke ground for the NLNG Research and Innovation Centre for Computer and Electrical Engineering at Rivers State University to boost indigenous research, training and tech solutions for Nigeria’s energy and industrial sectors. Extractives & Safety: Solid Minerals Minister Dele Alake warned illegal miners against working abandoned pits without licences after a Kassa tin mine pit collapse killed seven, urging repurposing of “pits of death” into economic assets. FX & Markets: Naira held around N1,357.61/$ at the official market and about N1,420/$ in parallel trade, while NGX stayed bearish with sectors turning red and market cap slipping. Policy & Regulation: Nigeria’s EITI validation assessors praised improved systematic disclosures by NEITI, while SEC moves to tighten capital market compliance on geopolitical risk. Crypto Tax Debate: New NRS virtual asset tax rules (including 1.5% stamp duty on transfers) are drawing pushback from operators who warn of capital flight to unregulated foreign platforms.

Osun Election Fallout: Osun voters re-elected Ademola Adeleke and sparked fresh 2027 talk, with Isaac Fayose saying the result proves Tinubu can be defeated; Adeleke’s camp denied any “political deal” after Festus Keyamo’s “agreement is agreement” comment. Market Watch: NGX postponed its revised equities pricing rules meant to start Monday, while the equities market closed the week bearish, losing N1.889tn as 59 stocks declined. FX & Rates: FMDQ data showed FX forwards turnover jumped 263.56% to $90.89m even as spot turnover collapsed, and the naira cooled to about N1,360/$ at the official market. Industrial & Trade Push: NSDC unveiled a $1bn plan to cut sugar import dependence; lawmakers backed China’s zero-tariff expansion as a boost for African industrialisation; FG also reiterated diaspora and security partnerships. Security & Economy: NDLEA arrested a Lagos businessman with 1.55kg cocaine and seized large codeine syrup stock; Nigerian Navy destroyed illegal refining sites in Rivers. Governance & Business Climate: FCT Minister Nyesom Wike signed 26,272 C-of-O to improve access to land collateral for businesses. Ports Regulation: Maritime expert warns NPERA’s new powers must be clearly separated from NPA to avoid overlapping mandates.

Maritime Security: India and Nigeria are deepening maritime security cooperation, with a Nigerian Navy delegation set for a third Naval Sub Group Meeting in India to review naval ties and expand intelligence and counter-terrorism work in the Gulf of Guinea. Insecurity Policy: The Office of the National Security Adviser is driving a National Peace Framework focused on non-kinetic approaches, arguing force alone can’t deliver lasting peace amid terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and digital threats. Industrial Gas Push: A gas engineer urges Nigeria to use LNG governance to avoid the “crude oil trap,” calling for industrial clusters around gas projects instead of stand-alone exports. Telecom Connectivity: Airtel and SpaceX’s Starlink launched Africa’s first satellite-to-phone service in the DRC, enabling compatible phones to connect directly to satellites for limited services like SMS and light data. Finance & Markets: Nigeria’s overnight financing market hit a new monthly record as July trading volume rose to N104.9tn, while the SEC ordered capital market operators to cut ties with Iran and North Korea. Energy Risk: Fresh attacks on UAE-linked oil vessels through the Strait of Hormuz are raising fuel-supply risks for import-dependent African economies. Industrial Lending: BOI says 80% of large-enterprise lending will target priority sectors like power, manufacturing, agribusiness and digital infrastructure. Crypto Compliance: Bitget moves to enforce sanctions on 16 crypto platforms while expanding stock-linked tokens. Osun Election: INEC is expected to declare the Osun governorship winner today as results collation continues amid reported disruptions. Education Access: UBEC says no child’s circumstances should block access to quality education, commissioning a rehabilitated alternative high school for girls in Lagos.

CBN Policy Shift: The central bank has reopened its Open Market Operations (OMO) market to domestic investors after a 2019 restriction, allowing eligible players to participate via Deposit Money Banks in both primary and secondary OMO markets, while keeping full control of issuance. Ports Regulation: President Tinubu’s assent to the Nigerian Ports Economic Regulatory Agency (NPERA) Bill is set to end “regulatory hesitation” by giving a statutory regulator stronger powers over port charges and enforcement. Capital Markets Security: The SEC ordered capital market operators to cut ties and restrict dealings linked to North Korea and Iran, including terminating correspondent banking relationships for DPRK-linked institutions. Trade & Finance: BRICS is discussing linking instant payments and central bank digital currencies to cut cross-border payment costs, while Nigeria’s equities market continues to react to profit-taking and FX sentiment. Health & Tech: Nigeria targets local production and technology transfer for radiotherapy and imaging equipment by 2030, as it deepens oncology partnerships with China. Sports & Business: Tecno and PalmPay are pursuing Hong Kong listings, and Ibom Air is set to take delivery of its third Airbus A220-300 to boost connectivity and tourism.

Capital Markets: NGX investors lost about N3.8tn across four sessions as selling pressure stretched after Tinubu’s visit, with market cap slipping and activity weakening. Anti-Corruption & Governance: ICPC boss Musa Aliyu said integrity in public administration is now central to economic stability, while tracking of massive public projects and recovered funds underscores the push to curb graft. Legal Compliance: SAN Michael Numa warned lawyers that weak KYC on client funding could trigger fee forfeiture, stressing due diligence beyond paperwork. Corporate & Security Regulation: SEC ordered capital market operators to freeze assets linked to suspected terrorism financiers, while also admitting blockchain into its ARIP for regulated testing. Energy & Industry: Dangote Refinery’s CEO says the October IPO is aimed at Nigerians’ participation and foreign listing is at least three years away. Diaspora & Investment: Tinubu urged Nigerians abroad to move beyond remittances and property into productive sectors. Trade & Customs: Nigeria Customs in Ogun seized smuggled goods worth N3.57bn, including rice and PMS. Elections & Youth: FG urged youths to reclaim confidence and actively participate in the 2027 electoral process.

Naira & FX: The naira strengthened to N1,358.25/$ at the NFEM, up 0.42% week-on-week as external reserves climbed above $52bn, easing pressure on importers. Capital Markets: The NGX All-Share Index fell for a second straight session, down 0.16% and wiping about N257bn in market value as investors took profit in heavyweight names. Insurance Recap: Universal Insurance secured a N7.128bn private placement to meet NAICOM recapitalisation rules, with FPNG set to hold 50.1%. Anti-terror Finance: The SEC ordered capital market operators to freeze assets of six individuals and three entities linked to terrorism financing. Energy & Trade: Tinubu renewed vows to revive moribund refineries; meanwhile, Nigeria-China aquatic exports got a push for zero-tariff access as officials urge faster implementation to turn $18bn H1 trade into export earnings. SMEDAN & Skills: SMEDAN launched the BRYNE programme to support 100,000+ young entrepreneurs annually, while Aptech celebrated 130+ graduates as demand for digital skills rises. Diaspora Investment: Tinubu urged Nigerians abroad to shift from remittances to investments through NIDEC in Toronto. Entertainment Business: Fresh royalty and catalogue disputes hit Dapper Music as multiple artistes publicly trade allegations.